Montenegro: The EU’s Next Member State?
Why Montenegro is closer than ever to joining the EU and what its accession could mean for Europe.
POLITICSNEWS
Montenegro is a small country on the Adriatic coast, with a population of just over 600,000. Yet it has become one of the most closely watched countries in the European Union’s enlargement process. All 33 negotiating chapters have been opened, and 18 have been provisionally closed. The government wants to join the EU in 2028, and recent developments suggest that Brussels is taking that ambition seriously.
The question is whether Montenegro can get there on time. Negotiating chapters and closing them provisionally are important milestones, but they do not automatically lead to membership. The country still needs to make progress on judicial independence, corruption and the functioning of its institutions. And even if it completes the necessary reforms, accession will require agreement from the existing Member States.
So why has Montenegro moved ahead of the other candidates, and what would its membership mean for the EU?
How Montenegro got here
Montenegro became independent in 2006, following a referendum in which 55.5% of voters supported leaving the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro. The result was close, but it gave the country a separate path towards European integration.
It applied for EU membership in December 2008 and received candidate status two years later. Accession negotiations began in June 2012. Since then, the country has spent more than a decade adapting its laws and institutions to the EU’s rules.
The negotiations are divided into 33 chapters covering areas ranging from free movement and competition to agriculture, environmental protection and financial control. Opening a chapter means that negotiations on that policy area can begin; provisionally closing it means that the EU considers the requirements sufficiently met at that stage. Neither step is necessarily irreversible before the negotiations are concluded as a whole.
Some chapters are mainly technical. Others are much more politically sensitive. Chapters 23 and 24, which cover the judiciary and fundamental rights, and justice, freedom and security, are particularly important because they concern the way the state itself operates.
EU membership involves adopting a substantial body of common legislation, but that is only part of the process. The EU also wants to see that laws are enforced and that institutions can work independently, including when politically influential people are involved.
Why Montenegro is ahead of the other candidates
Montenegro has one advantage that cannot be overlooked: it has been negotiating for longer than most other Western Balkan candidates. But the duration of the process alone does not explain the recent acceleration.
The EU’s approach to enlargement has changed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Membership for countries in the Union’s neighbourhood is now discussed not only in terms of economic development and political reform, but also in relation to security and geopolitical stability.
The Western Balkans has long been an important part of that debate. The EU wants the region to become more stable and more closely integrated with European institutions, while remaining aware that other powers also seek influence there.
Montenegro has benefited from this renewed attention. By July 2026, it had provisionally closed 18 chapters, with further progress made during the year in areas including competition policy and the customs union. It is now widely regarded as the leading candidate in the current enlargement process.
That does not mean the remaining negotiations will necessarily be straightforward. The chapters still to be completed include demanding policy areas, and the rule-of-law requirements remain central. Political support can help keep the process moving, but it cannot replace the need to meet the EU’s conditions.
The difficult part is reforming the state
The most important question is not how many chapters Montenegro has closed, but whether the reforms behind them will work in practice.
The European Commission has repeatedly raised concerns about judicial independence, corruption, media freedom and institutional accountability. Its 2025 Rule of Law Report acknowledged progress in investigations and prosecutions involving high-level corruption, but also pointed to the low number of final convictions. The gap between opening cases and securing final judgments remains an important issue.
This is a familiar problem in enlargement. A candidate can pass new laws and create new procedures, but changing how institutions operate often takes much longer. Courts need to function independently, anti-corruption bodies need to be effective, and decisions must be enforced consistently.
These issues matter beyond the accession negotiations. They affect whether citizens trust public institutions and whether businesses can expect rules to be applied fairly. For the EU, they also matter after membership: once a country joins, ensuring compliance with common standards can become more complicated than during the accession process.
Montenegro therefore faces a difficult balancing act. It needs to maintain the pace of negotiations without treating the reforms themselves as a checklist to be completed as quickly as possible.
Politics at home could make a difference
Montenegro’s domestic politics add another layer of complexity. Questions of national identity and the country’s relationship with Serbia have been part of political debate since independence. People in Montenegro hold different views on identity and history, and these differences can influence discussions about the country’s future.
The 2023 elections brought a new political phase. Jakov Milatović, who campaigned on a pro-European platform, became president, while Milojko Spajić took office as prime minister later that year. European integration has remained a central government objective, but progress depends on more than the position of the executive.
Parliamentary cooperation, appointments to key institutions and the ability to pass and implement reforms all matter. If political disagreements delay these decisions, the timetable for accession becomes harder to meet.
This is one reason why the EU has stressed the importance of political consensus and institutional stability. A country can make rapid progress when there is a clear political commitment to membership, but that commitment needs to hold up when reforms become contentious or require difficult compromises.
Why the EU cares about Montenegro
Montenegro’s potential accession is important for reasons that go beyond its population.
The country joined NATO in 2017 and has maintained a strong Euro-Atlantic orientation. Its position on the Adriatic also gives it a place in the wider strategic picture of the Western Balkans. The EU has a long-standing interest in stability in the region, where historical ties and external political influence make enlargement more than a purely administrative process.
Montenegro has also aligned itself with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy, including its position on Russia’s war against Ukraine. That alignment reinforces its foreign-policy orientation towards the Union.
There is a more practical side to enlargement, too. Membership would bring Montenegro further into the EU’s single market and institutional system, while extending the Union’s common rules to another Western Balkan country. For the EU, it would provide evidence that the accession process can still deliver results after years in which enlargement appeared to move slowly.
But accession also raises questions for the Union itself. Every new Member State affects representation in the European Parliament, decision-making in the Council and the balance between national and European interests. Montenegro’s small size would limit its demographic impact, but it would still become part of a system that is already discussing how to function with more than 27 members.
Is 2028 realistic?
The Montenegrin government’s target is ambitious, but it is no longer just a distant political slogan. In 2026, the EU began taking practical steps towards preparing for possible accession, including work on an accession treaty and financial arrangements connected with future membership.
These preparations are significant, but they should not be mistaken for a guarantee. The negotiations still need to be completed, the final terms agreed, and the accession treaty approved and ratified under the relevant procedures. All Member States must ultimately agree to the country’s entry.
There is also a substantive question: will Montenegro have completed the necessary reforms by then? The remaining work on the rule of law and institutional effectiveness cannot simply be compressed into a political timetable. If progress slows, the target date could move.
For now, 2028 is best understood as a goal that gives direction to the process, rather than a confirmed date of accession.
A test for the next phase of enlargement
Montenegro has come a long way since applying for EU membership in 2008. With all negotiating chapters opened and 18 provisionally closed, it is closer to accession than the other candidates in the current enlargement process.
The final stretch may be the most demanding. It will require the country to show that its reforms are durable, that its institutions can operate independently and that political support for European integration can be sustained.
For the EU, Montenegro is an opportunity to move enlargement forward in the Western Balkans. It is also a test of whether the Union can admit new members without compromising the standards it expects them to meet.
Whether Montenegro joins in 2028 remains to be seen. But its progress has already made one thing clear: enlargement is back on the European agenda, and Montenegro is at the centre of that discussion.
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